In their recent press release, campaign group Net Zero Watch has welcomed the decision by grid operator NESO to audit its demand forecast methodology. On 8 January 2025, the GB grid came close to a blackout due to a major error in the so-called ‘initial national demand outturn’, which forms the basis of day-ahead planning for the electricity system.

The decision was revealed in NESO’s Operational Transparency Forum on 22 January 2025.

Energy expert Kathryn Porter said:

“There have long been concerns over the way NESO estimates both day-ahead supply and demand, and many commentators have warned that safety margins are far too tight. This audit doesn’t come a moment too soon.”

Net Zero Watch’s Lord Frost said:

“The irrational drive to Net Zero is costing consumers dear already. If it pushes grid stability too far, a very serious problem could turn into a disaster.”

And Net Zero Watch director Andrew Montford called for the results to be made public.

“It’s right that NESO are undertaking this audit, but for the sake of public trust in the network, the results should be published as soon as they have been completed.”

Our take

This comes as good news here at Friends of the Moors because it is long overdue that the dangers of increasing reliance on renewables is properly assessed. It was a much closer call on Wed 8th than NESO initially admitted and it took concerted criticism from independent analysts to fully understand the problem. It is difficult to see how further expansion of the UK wind farm fleet, and other forms of intermittent energy, could do anything but make the situation much, much worse.

Finally, there appears to be a semblance of engineering sanity, but perhaps we shouldn’t speak too soon?