The following email was sent to Elsie Blundell, MP for Heywood and Middleton North on the 10th January 2025 following a meeting in her constituency office. This is the first of a series of correspondence and includes discussion of key issues arising from the way that the Labour Party is implementing NetZero Policy.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this correspondence are my own and not necessarily shared by everyone in Friends of the Moorland.

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Dear Elsie,

Many thanks for taking the time to meet me in order to discuss my concerns about NetZero – I really appreciated the hearing that you gave me. You asked me to summarise the key actions we agreed and add some details about recent grid issues. I’ll also summarise what I think were the other key points raised, please do correct me if I have misquoted or missed anything.

Best wishes

[NAME REDACTED]

The impact of NetZero on GDP

We first discussed David Turver’s article^[1] which highlighted impact of NetZero emissions reduction policies on GDP. I drew your attention to the chart for annual CO2 emissions from our world in data:

I then highlighted the impact of NetZero on GDP compared to other countries around the world in the following chart:

What these two charts show is that a) our minimal contribution to CO2 reduction will have no impact on global emissions, and b) our GDP is already amongst the worst globally. Although, we know correlation isn’t causation we have to conclude that India and China are benefitting greatly from their higher emissions due to using fossil fuels to produce energy cheaply. You mentioned Rachel Reeves’ visit to China and how she would ask them to reduce their emissions. Even if successful, we already know that China has a terrible track record in keeping their word in international agreements. We also know that the new regime in the US will move rapidly to achieve energy independence again, and fossil fuels will be a major component of that strategy through fracking. This will make the US much more competitive and there is no scenario I can envisage where China would sacrifice their economic advantages over the US in order to save the planet. The same will apply in India and other developing nations.

The Recent EMN leading to peak prices of £5,500/MWh

I brought your attention to the recent Electricity Margin Notice (EMN) on Wednesday night. You can find out more in Kathryn Porter’s excellent article “Blackouts near miss in tightest day in GB electricity market since 2011”^[2] where she stated:

Yesterday saw a blackout near miss in what turned out to be the tightest day the GB electricity market has seen since 2011. Wind power was 2.5 GW through the evening peak, solar was (obviously) zero and there were significant interconnector outages leaving expected capacity at just 5.7 GW. Had just one large power station tripped this evening, demand control would have been a real prospect.

She explained that:

An Electricity Market Notice (“EMN”) is issued when the spare capacity does not cover the contingency NESO has decided is necessary.

David Turver analysed what happened to the system margin during this time^[3]:

The red line “Loss of Load Probability” went up to 29% at one point, and as a result operators scrambled to keep the lights on at any price. Rye House Power Station offered and was accepted, a price of £4,000/MWh but as the requirement went up the price increased to £5,500/MWh. Prior to NetZero policies, the wholesale price of gas was no more than £50/MWh and this is approximately what we would be paying today in a deregulated energy market. I hope that Mr Miliband will take this as a wake-up call, as to ignore this would be incredibly irresponsible given his position as head of the NESO.

I highlighted the impact of high prices on the poorest, particularly pensioners, many of whom will die this winter as a result of this and the impact of withdrawing the winter fuel heating allowance in a very sudden and clumsy way. I stated that well off pensioners do not need the extra winter fuel payment, but surely there must have been a better way to phase in the change. You agreed.

The problem isn’t just that this was an isolated winter event. The real issue is that NetZero policy depends on foreign imports to cover these shortfalls, which are provided mainly from gas and nuclear, with gas at home. However, as the proportion of renewable energy is increased it becomes less efficient to operate our own gas fired power stations as they will be reduced to supporting peak load requirements only. I gave the example of having to drive your car around at 5 mph and occasionally have to do short bursts of 70mph. There is no way to avoid this basic engineering reality. Of course, if mainland Europe were to enact the same policies, then there would be no backup power other than perhaps some nuclear. However, if everyone suffers shortfalls there would be increasing demand on that limited supply with resultant price gouging as described earlier. There simply is no magic bullet.

We did not discuss, but grid scale battery storage is not an option as the technology does not exist to meet nationwide requirements for extended periods. In any case even if it were, the costs would ape those described above, i.e. they would be horrific.

I asked you if you were aware of the total cost of NetZero to consumers and you were not. You are not alone as very few people are. However, given the enormous sums spent on projects like Carbon Capture and Storage (most recent £22bn if I am not mistaken) it really shouldn’t be surprising. Andrew Montford at NetZero Watch has produced some helpful factsheets covering many aspects of the economics of renewable energy policy.

For example, he found that the total cost to the average household is £2,120^[4]. The direct levies on consumer bills are only £348 – though of course few consumers realise this because the figure is not identified. However, the extra costs are generated by a variety of renewable programmes, grid reinforcement costs, inefficient gas power and higher gas prices (due to carbon levies and emergency pricing).

I did not mention, but it is an often claimed “fact” that onshore wind is the cheapest energy by a factor of 10. This would be correct if we simply compared the cost of production of wind power (since the source is free) with the inflated cost of gas for the reasons described earlier. Gas is more expensive because of NetZero (particularly carbon taxes) not because of market forces or technology improvements in wind power engineering. Andrew Montford has another briefing showing that the costs of wind power, particularly for offshore wind, are increasing as this chart based on published financial operating records shows^[5]:

The Climate and Nature Bill

We also discussed the Climate and Nature Bill, and there was some uncertainty about whether it had already had its first reading. As you know it introduces a statutory obligation to reduce emissions in line with the 1.5^oC objective and would require emissions to fall dramatically from where they are now. A key change would be to include non-territorial carbon emissions, which are estimated to double our territorial ones. Currently our Carbon Budgets disregard any emissions arising from overseas production and importation – so this would be a massive change.

Our current targets (Fifth and Sixth Carbon Budgets) would have to go to near zero – currently set to 345Mt/y 2028-2032 and 193 Mt/y up to 2037. This is simply impossible.

Territorial emissions have already been cut to the bone therefore we would necessarily have to ban just about all imports – but that would not get us even close to the mandated targets.

About half our food is currently imported and the bill would also entail shutting down livestock farming with all the consequences that implies.

All car imports would have to be banned, as well as the raw materials required to support our own car industry. Therefore, car manufacturing would cease. This is just one industry – the impact would be widespread. Nissan is just one the manufacturers in the UK already struggling to survive under the impact of NetZero policies.

Incidentally, it would also be impossible to import large scale components to support the renewables industry. This would particularly apply to large wind farms such as Scout Moor II which would require turbine blades and the use of thousands of tonnes of cement which is a very energy intensive process.

You mentioned the drive to reduce pollution, and we agreed that particulate pollution, such as NOX, is entirely different to and not to be confused with CO2 emissions, since CO2 is a fundamental gas for life and not a pollutant. The fact that everyone wants clean air and water should be a given, but we should not confuse policies as the Climate and Nature Bill does.

Finally

Finally, you asked what we should do about NetZero and I responded that the only solution to the problem (though it will not be a quick fix) is to repeal the 2008 Climate Change Act and go back to a free market where the best and most efficient technology wins. I did not say at the time, but this begs a question. If renewables are so cheap – why does the market have to be rigged so heavily in its favour given the technology is supposedly mature now?

Agreed actions

I asked that you take up these matters with Mr Miliband and ask him the following questions:

1. How much will our NetZero policy reduce the global temperature in degrees centigrade and over what time period?

The answer must be backed up by solid scientific evidence and allow for the fact that in much of the world, where the majority of emissions are produced, no climate action will be taken, i.e. CO2 emissions will rise despite anything we do to reduce our own 1% of emissions.

2. How can NetZero policy lead to greater energy security, when as on Wednesday 8th Jan 2025, we were dependent on foreign imports (largely fossil fuel generated) and expensive gas to keep the lights on?

The context of NetZero policy further reducing fossil fuel power, and increasing reliance on foreign imports must be factored in.

In terms of other actions, you agreed to:

3. Have another look at the Climate and Nature bill and I would encourage your colleagues to do the same. I asked that you vote against it at the next opportunity.

4. Consider helping in the campaign to oppose the extension to Scout Moor wind farm which will destroy the views, amenity and heritage value of the historic Rooley Moor Road. You have a meeting coming up with [NAME REDACTED] and [NAME REDACTED] but you have not yet decided whether to support us but will let us know after this meeting.

References

1. COP29 Flops as Starmer Makes UK Cop for the Lot, David Turver, Nov 24, https://davidturver.substack.com/p/cop29-flops-starmer-makes-uk-cop-lot
2. Blackouts near miss in tightest day in GB electricity market since 2011, Kathryn Porter, 9 Jan 2025, https://watt-logic.com/2025/01/09/blackouts-near-miss-in-tighest-day-in-gb-electricity-market-since-2011/
3. Fake It Until You Break It, David Turver, Jan 25, https://davidturver.substack.com/p/fake-it-until-you-break-it
4. What is NetZero costing now?, Andrew Montford, NetZero Watch,https://www.netzerowatch.com/all-papers/net-zero-policy-already-costing-at-least-2000-per-household
5. The economics of wind power, Andrew Montford, NetZero Watch, 8th March 2023, https://www.netzerowatch.com/all-papers/net-zero-watch-urges-uk-government-to-stand-up-to-wind-lobbys-blackmail